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Oyem AC vs Cercle Mbéri — Championnat D1 2022

Oyem AC
Oyem AC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
4/11/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oyem AC30%
×Draw30%
Cercle Mbéri40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyem AC
0.96
Cercle Mbéri
1.15

Cercle Mbéri creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Oyem AC
1.23
Cercle Mbéri
1.30

allows per match

Oyem AC
1.00
Cercle Mbéri
0.70

finishing

Oyem AC+0.00on par
Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyem AC ↓

Cercle Mbéri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oyem AC or draw
60%
Oyem AC or Cercle Mbéri
70%
Draw or Cercle Mbéri
70%

Winning margin

Oyem AC wins by 2+
11%
Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oyem AC 1+ goals
62%
Oyem AC 2+ goals
25%
Oyem AC 3+ goals
7%
Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
68%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
32%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oyem AC (draw refunded)
43%
Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyem AC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyem AC attack 1.23 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.96

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Oyem AC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oyem AC scores more
30%
level
30%
Cercle Mbéri scores more
40%

Cercle Mbéri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Oyem AC 0–2 Cercle Mbéri

Cercle Mbéri beat Oyem AC 2-0 in Championnat D1 on April 11, 2026.