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Oxin Alborz vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
0 – 0
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1/20/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Oxin Alborz40%
×Draw28%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.23
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.06

Oxin Alborz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
68%
Oxin Alborz or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
72%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
60%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
17%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
71%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
35%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
13%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
65%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
29%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
56%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
40%
level
28%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
32%

Oxin Alborz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Oxin Alborz 0–0 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Oxin Alborz and SorkhPooshan Pakdasht drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on January 20, 2020.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.