Oxin Alborz 1–2 Shahin Bushehr: Result & Stats

Oxin Alborz

FT

1 – 2

Shahin Bushehr

2/19/2019

Azadegan League · Round 24Enghelab Stadium (Karaj (Karadj))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Oxin Alborz42%

×Draw32%

Shahin Bushehr26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxin AlborzExpected goals in this matchShahin Bushehr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.78

Oxin Alborz

1.07

Shahin Bushehr

0.78

Oxin Alborz creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 48 away

1.18

creates per match

0.69

0.88

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Oxin Alborz

1.18

Shahin Bushehr

0.69

allows per match

Oxin Alborz

0.88

Shahin Bushehr

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Shahin Bushehr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw

74%

Oxin Alborz or Shahin Bushehr

68%

Draw or Shahin Bushehr

58%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

17%

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

66%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

29%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

9%

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

54%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

18%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

61%

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more

42%

level

32%

Shahin Bushehr scores more

26%

Oxin Alborz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff