Oxin Alborz 0–1 Pars Jonoubi JAM: Result & Stats

Oxin Alborz

FT

0 – 1

Pars Jonoubi JAM

12/5/2020

Azadegan League · Round 3Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oxin Alborz42%

×Draw30%

Pars Jonoubi JAM28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxin AlborzExpected goals in this matchPars Jonoubi JAM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.89

Oxin Alborz

1.15

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.89

Oxin Alborz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 100 away

1.18

creates per match

0.89

0.88

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Oxin Alborz

1.18

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.89

allows per match

Oxin Alborz

0.88

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw

72%

Oxin Alborz or Pars Jonoubi JAM

70%

Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM

58%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

18%

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

68%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

32%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

11%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

59%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

22%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

60%

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more

42%

level

30%

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

28%

Oxin Alborz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff