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Oxin Alborz vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
1 – 0
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
12/12/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oxin Alborz42%
×Draw31%
Niroye Zamini27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.12
Niroye Zamini
0.82

Oxin Alborz creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
Niroye Zamini
0.76

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Niroye Zamini
1.06

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
73%
Oxin Alborz or Niroye Zamini
69%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
58%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
18%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
67%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
31%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
10%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
56%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
20%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
61%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
42%
level
31%
Niroye Zamini scores more
27%

Oxin Alborz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxin Alborz vs Niroye Zamini

Oxin Alborz beat Niroye Zamini 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 12, 2019.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.