Oxin Alborz 2–1 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Oxin Alborz

FT

2 – 1

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

10/23/2019

Azadegan League · Round 9Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oxin Alborz44%

×Draw30%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxin AlborzExpected goals in this matchKhooshe Talaee Saveh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.82

Oxin Alborz

1.17

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.82

Oxin Alborz creates 43% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 84 away

1.18

creates per match

0.77

0.88

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Oxin Alborz

1.18

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.77

allows per match

Oxin Alborz

0.88

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw

74%

Oxin Alborz or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

70%

Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

56%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

19%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

69%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

33%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

11%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

56%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

20%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

63%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more

44%

level

30%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

26%

Oxin Alborz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff