Oxin Alborz 3–1 Havadar: Result & Stats

Oxin Alborz

FT

3 – 1

Havadar

2/7/2021

Azadegan League · Round 13Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Oxin Alborz36%

×Draw33%

Havadar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxin AlborzExpected goals in this matchHavadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.83

Oxin Alborz

0.93

Havadar

0.83

Oxin Alborz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

1.18

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Oxin Alborz

1.18

Havadar

0.78

allows per match

Oxin Alborz

0.88

Havadar

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Havadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw

69%

Oxin Alborz or Havadar

67%

Draw or Havadar

64%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

13%

Havadar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

61%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

24%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

7%

Havadar 1+ goals

56%

Havadar 2+ goals

20%

Havadar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

54%

Havadar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Havadar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Havadar attack 0.78 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more

36%

level

33%

Havadar scores more

31%

Oxin Alborz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff