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Oxin Alborz vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
1 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
8/11/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Enghelab Stadium (Karaj (Karadj))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oxin Alborz36%
×Draw31%
Fajr Sepasi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.02
Fajr Sepasi
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 98 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
67%
Oxin Alborz or Fajr Sepasi
69%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
64%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
14%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
64%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
27%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
8%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
62%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
25%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
52%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
36%
level
31%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
33%

Oxin Alborz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxin Alborz vs Fajr Sepasi

Oxin Alborz beat Fajr Sepasi 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium (Karaj (Karadj)).