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Fajr Sepasi vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
0 – 0
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
3/8/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Fajr Sepasi58%
×Draw26%
Oxin Alborz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.48
Oxin Alborz
0.61

Fajr Sepasi creates 143% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 49 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
85%
Fajr Sepasi or Oxin Alborz
74%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
42%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
30%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
77%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
43%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
19%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
46%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
13%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
79%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
58%
level
26%
Oxin Alborz scores more
15%

Fajr Sepasi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Oxin Alborz

Fajr Sepasi and Oxin Alborz drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on March 8, 2021.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.