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Oxin Alborz vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
0 – 3
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
5/8/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oxin Alborz46%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal Mollasani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.25
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.85

Oxin Alborz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 68 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
75%
Oxin Alborz or Esteghlal Mollasani
71%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
54%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
21%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
71%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
36%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
13%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
57%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
21%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
64%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
46%
level
29%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
25%

Oxin Alborz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Oxin Alborz 0–3 Esteghlal Mollasani

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Oxin Alborz 3-0 in Azadegan League on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.