Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oxford United W vs Watford W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Oxford United W
Oxford United W
FT
1 – 0
Watford W
Watford W
11/24/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundRAW Charging Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oxford United W57%
×Draw19%
Watford W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United W
2.43
Watford W
1.53

Oxford United W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oxford United W
2.73
Watford W
2.25

allows per match

Oxford United W
0.82
Watford W
2.13

finishing

Oxford United W+0.00on par
Watford W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United W ↓

Watford W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Oxford United W or draw
76%
Oxford United W or Watford W
81%
Draw or Watford W
43%

Winning margin

Oxford United W wins by 2+
36%
Watford W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oxford United W 1+ goals
91%
Oxford United W 2+ goals
69%
Oxford United W 3+ goals
43%
Watford W 1+ goals
78%
Watford W 2+ goals
45%
Watford W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oxford United W (draw refunded)
71%
Watford W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United W at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Watford W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United W attack 2.73 + Watford W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.43

Watford W attack 2.25 + Oxford United W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Oxford United W scores more
57%
level
19%
Watford W scores more
24%

Oxford United W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Oxford United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Oxford United W 1–0 Watford W

Oxford United W beat Watford W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at RAW Charging Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.