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Oxford United W vs Plymouth Argyle W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Oxford United W
Oxford United W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Plymouth Argyle W
Plymouth Argyle W
12/14/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oxford United W64%
×Draw18%
Plymouth Argyle W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United W
2.51
Plymouth Argyle W
1.26

Oxford United W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Oxford United W
2.73
Plymouth Argyle W
1.71

allows per match

Oxford United W
0.82
Plymouth Argyle W
2.29

finishing

Oxford United W+0.00on par
Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United W ↓

Plymouth Argyle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Oxford United W or draw
82%
Oxford United W or Plymouth Argyle W
82%
Draw or Plymouth Argyle W
36%

Winning margin

Oxford United W wins by 2+
43%
Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oxford United W 1+ goals
92%
Oxford United W 2+ goals
71%
Oxford United W 3+ goals
45%
Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals
72%
Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals
36%
Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United W (draw refunded)
78%
Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United W at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Plymouth Argyle W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United W attack 2.73 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.51

Plymouth Argyle W attack 1.71 + Oxford United W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Oxford United W scores more
64%
level
18%
Plymouth Argyle W scores more
18%

Oxford United W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Oxford United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxford United W vs Plymouth Argyle W

Oxford United W beat Plymouth Argyle W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 14, 2025.