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Oxford United W vs Bristol Rovers W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Oxford United W
Oxford United W
FT
2 – 3
Bristol Rovers W
Bristol Rovers W
12/15/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundRAW Charging Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Oxford United W52%
×Draw19%
Bristol Rovers W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United W
2.45
Bristol Rovers W
1.82

Oxford United W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Oxford United W
2.73
Bristol Rovers W
2.83

allows per match

Oxford United W
0.82
Bristol Rovers W
2.17

finishing

Oxford United W+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United W ↓

Bristol Rovers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Oxford United W or draw
71%
Oxford United W or Bristol Rovers W
81%
Draw or Bristol Rovers W
48%

Winning margin

Oxford United W wins by 2+
32%
Bristol Rovers W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oxford United W 1+ goals
91%
Oxford United W 2+ goals
70%
Oxford United W 3+ goals
44%
Bristol Rovers W 1+ goals
84%
Bristol Rovers W 2+ goals
54%
Bristol Rovers W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Oxford United W (draw refunded)
64%
Bristol Rovers W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United W at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Bristol Rovers W away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United W attack 2.73 + Bristol Rovers W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.45

Bristol Rovers W attack 2.83 + Oxford United W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oxford United W scores more
52%
level
19%
Bristol Rovers W scores more
29%

Oxford United W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oxford United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxford United W vs Bristol Rovers W

Bristol Rovers W beat Oxford United W 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at RAW Charging Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.