Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oxford United W vs Billericay Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Oxford United W
Oxford United W
FT
3 – 1
Billericay Town W
Billericay Town W
4/11/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundCourt Place Farm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oxford United W35%
×Draw20%
Billericay Town W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United W
2.12
Billericay Town W
2.41

Billericay Town W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oxford United W
2.73
Billericay Town W
4.00

allows per match

Oxford United W
0.82
Billericay Town W
1.50

finishing

Oxford United W+0.00on par
Billericay Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United W ↓

Billericay Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Oxford United W or draw
55%
Oxford United W or Billericay Town W
80%
Draw or Billericay Town W
65%

Winning margin

Oxford United W wins by 2+
19%
Billericay Town W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Oxford United W 1+ goals
88%
Oxford United W 2+ goals
62%
Oxford United W 3+ goals
35%
Billericay Town W 1+ goals
91%
Billericay Town W 2+ goals
69%
Billericay Town W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Oxford United W (draw refunded)
44%
Billericay Town W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United W at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Billericay Town W away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United W attack 2.73 + Billericay Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Billericay Town W attack 4.00 + Oxford United W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United W scores more
35%
level
20%
Billericay Town W scores more
45%

Billericay Town W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Billericay Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Oxford United W 3–1 Billericay Town W

Oxford United W beat Billericay Town W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Court Place Farm in Oxford, Oxfordshire.