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Oxford United vs Wigan — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Wigan
Wigan
12/18/2021League OneLeague One · Round 23The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Oxford United44%
×Draw25%
Wigan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.52
Wigan
1.21

Oxford United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 116 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.69
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Oxford United
1.10
Wigan
1.34

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
70%
Oxford United or Wigan
75%
Draw or Wigan
56%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
22%
Wigan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
78%
Oxford United 2+ goals
45%
Oxford United 3+ goals
20%
Wigan 1+ goals
70%
Wigan 2+ goals
34%
Wigan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
59%
Wigan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.69 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wigan attack 1.32 + Oxford United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oxford United scores more
44%
level
25%
Wigan scores more
30%

Oxford United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Oxford United 2–3 Wigan

Wigan beat Oxford United 3-2 in League One on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.