Oxford United 2–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

M. Harris 90'

M. Peart-Harris 19'

4/11/2026

Championship · Round 42Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Oxford United43%

×Draw27%

Watford29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.05

Oxford United

1.34

Watford

1.05

Oxford United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 55 away

1.12

creates per match

0.98

1.12

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Oxford United

1.12

Watford

0.98

allows per match

Oxford United

1.12

Watford

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

71%

Oxford United or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

20%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

74%

Oxford United 2+ goals

39%

Oxford United 3+ goals

15%

Watford 1+ goals

65%

Watford 2+ goals

28%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

60%

Watford (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

Watford away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.12 + Watford defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Watford attack 0.98 + Oxford United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oxford United scores more

43%

level

27%

Watford scores more

29%

Oxford United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Brannagan

Oxford United · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

M. Peart-Harris

57'

Nestory Irankunda

59'

Myles Peart-Harris

60'

K. Baah← N. Mendy

61'

K. Keben← J. Petris

61'

M. Doumbia← L. Kjerrumgaard

68'

O. Maamma← G. Chakvetadze

71'

Imrân Louza

78'

H. ter Avest← M. Peart-Harris

87'

M. Harris← J. Donley

89'

T. Ince← S. Goglichidze

90+3'

W. Vaulks← Y. E. Konak

90+4'

O. ter Haar Romeny← W. Lankshear

90'

M. Harris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordWatford

Overview

33%Possession67%

15Total Shots12

1.86Expected Goals (xG)0.81

10Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked5

7Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

211Total Passes448

126Accurate Passes356

60%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2