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Oxford United vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
C. Brannagan 59' (pen)
S. Long 32' (OG)
4/19/2024League OneLeague One · Round 45The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Oxford United46%
×Draw27%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.43
Stevenage
1.04

Oxford United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 76 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.70
Stevenage
0.95

allows per match

Oxford United
1.13
Stevenage
1.16

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
73%
Oxford United or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
54%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
22%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
76%
Oxford United 2+ goals
42%
Oxford United 3+ goals
17%
Stevenage 1+ goals
65%
Stevenage 2+ goals
28%
Stevenage 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
63%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Stevenage defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stevenage attack 0.95 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oxford United scores more
46%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Oxford United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
C. BrannaganOxford UnitedOxford United · M
8.3

Match Events

10'
Terence Vancooten
32'
S. LongOwn goal
59'
C. BrannaganPenalty
60'
B. Thompson← J. Reid
64'
O. Dale← M. Browne
71'
Nesta Guinness-Walker
72'
B. Bodin← Ruben Rodrigues
72'
J. Henry← T. Goodrham
80'
E. List← N. Freeman
88'
Kane Smith
90+2'
N. Thompson← H. White
90+2'
D. Sweeney← J. Roberts

Possession

66%Oxford

Shots

25Oxford

Pass accuracy

57%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordStevenage
Overview
66%Possession34%
25Total Shots2
8Corners5
9Fouls17
Shots
25Total Shots2
6On Target0
12Off Target0
7Blocked2
13Inside Box1
12Outside Box1
Passing
66%Possession34%
535Total Passes286
441Accurate Passes180
82%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls17
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Stevenage

Oxford United and Stevenage drew 1-1 in League One on April 19, 2024.

Goals: S. Long (32' o.g.), C. Brannagan (59' pen).

Oxford United controlled possession (66%) and registered 25 shots to 2.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.