Oxford United 2–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Southampton

S. Mills 89'

T. Goodrham 23'

T. Harwood-Bellis 29'

12/26/2025

Championship · Round 23Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Oxford United34%

×Draw26%

Southampton40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.37

Oxford United

1.25

Southampton

1.37

Southampton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 44 away

1.16

creates per match

1.54

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Oxford United

1.16

Southampton

1.54

allows per match

Oxford United

1.20

Southampton

1.33

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.10scores more

Southampton+0.05on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

60%

Oxford United or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

66%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

15%

Southampton wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

71%

Oxford United 2+ goals

36%

Oxford United 3+ goals

13%

Southampton 1+ goals

75%

Southampton 2+ goals

40%

Southampton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

46%

Southampton (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 39 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.16 + Southampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Southampton attack 1.54 + Oxford United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oxford United scores more

34%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

40%

Southampton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Mills

Oxford United · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

Brodie Spencer

23'

T. Goodrham

29'

T. Harwood-Bellis↳ L. Scienza

37'

Flynn Downes

56'

O. Romeu← F. Downes

56'

J. Robinson← L. Scienza

66'

F. Krastev← L. Harris

70'

R. Fraser← T. Fellows

75'

S. Dembele← P. Placheta

75'

W. Lankshear← N. Prelec

85'

C. Archer← F. Azaz

89'

S. Mills↳ W. Lankshear

90'

Stanley Mills

90+1'

S. Long← S. Mills

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordSouthampton

Overview

30%Possession70%

17Total Shots19

0.91Expected Goals (xG)1.44

5Corners7

14Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots19

6On Target5

8Off Target7

3Blocked7

7Inside Box14

10Outside Box5

Passing

30%Possession70%

260Total Passes622

191Accurate Passes536

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-1.31Goals Prevented-1.31

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2