Oxford United 1–3 QPR: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

QPR

S. Mills 62'

Yang Min-Hyeok 90+1'

O. Romenij 42' (OG)

R. Edwards 7'

4/9/2025

Championship · Round 41The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Oxford United41%

×Draw29%

QPR30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.00

Oxford United

1.23

QPR

1.00

Oxford United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

1.19

creates per match

0.79

1.22

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Oxford United

1.19

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Oxford United

1.22

QPR

1.28

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Oxford United+0.13scores more

QPR+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

70%

Oxford United or QPR

71%

Draw or QPR

59%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

18%

QPR wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

71%

Oxford United 2+ goals

35%

Oxford United 3+ goals

13%

QPR 1+ goals

63%

QPR 2+ goals

26%

QPR 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

58%

QPR (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.19 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

QPR attack 0.79 + Oxford United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oxford United scores more

41%

level

29%

QPR scores more

30%

Oxford United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Dunne

QPR · D

8.0

Match Events

7'

R. Edwards↳ N. Madsen

12'

J. Bennett← C. Brown

42'

O. RomenijOwn goal

46'

T. Goodrham← O. Romenij

61'

S. Mills← H. ter Avest

62'

S. Mills↳ S. Dembélé

64'

Stanley Mills

64'

L. Andersen← S. Field

64'

Yang Min-Hyeok← D. Bennie

69'

M. Fox← K. Paal

75'

T. Bradshaw← W. Vaulks

75'

Ruben Rodrigues← M. Harris

82'

83'

85'

87'

89'

90+7'

90+3'

90+10'

K. Morgan← J. Colback

90+1'

Yang Min-Hyeok↳ K. Dembélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordQPR

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots11

0.60Expected Goals (xG)1.38

7Corners7

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target6

1Off Target1

6Blocked4

5Inside Box9

7Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

403Total Passes382

305Accurate Passes291

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Oxford United vs QPR

QPR beat Oxford United 3-1 in Championship on April 9, 2025.

Goals: R. Edwards (7'), O. Romenij (42' o.g.), S. Mills (62'), Yang Min-Hyeok (90+1').

Oxford United controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.

Oxford United vs QPR — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Oxford United vs QPR