Oxford United 0–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portsmouth

A. Segecic 38'

8/9/2025

Championship · Round 1Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Oxford United48%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.94

Oxford United

1.42

Portsmouth

0.94

Oxford United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

1.30

creates per match

0.86

1.01

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Oxford United

1.30

Portsmouth

0.86

allows per match

Oxford United

1.01

Portsmouth

1.53

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Oxford United-0.06on par

Portsmouth+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

75%

Oxford United or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

52%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

24%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

76%

Oxford United 2+ goals

41%

Oxford United 3+ goals

17%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

61%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

24%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

66%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.01 · 17 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.30 + Portsmouth defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Portsmouth attack 0.86 + Oxford United defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oxford United scores more

48%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

25%

Oxford United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Schmid

Portsmouth · G

9.2

Match Events

38'

41'

63'

64'

66'

H. ter Avest← E. Moore

67'

Yang Min-Hyuk← F. Bianchini

69'

S. Dembele← M. Harris

69'

J. Currie← G. Leigh

80'

T. Devlin← C. Lang

81'

L. Sibley← W. Vaulks

81'

T. Bradshaw← W. Lankshear

86'

Z. Swanson← J. Swift

87'

G. O'Donkor← T. Goodrham

90+3'

T. Waddingham← A. Segecic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordPortsmouth

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots9

1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.21

8Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots9

4On Target4

3Off Target5

11Blocked0

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

299Total Passes323

201Accurate Passes229

67%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

1.78Goals Prevented1.78

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Oxford United 1-0 in Championship on August 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Segecic (38').

Portsmouth controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Kassam Stadium in Oxford.

Oxford United vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Portsmouth