Oxford United 1–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Peterborough

B. Bodin 52'

K. Poku 31'

J. Taylor 6'

10/22/2022

League One · Round 16The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Oxford United44%

×Draw25%

Peterborough31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.29

Oxford United

1.58

Peterborough

1.29

Oxford United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 157 away

1.70

creates per match

1.46

1.13

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

69%

Oxford United or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

56%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

22%

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

47%

Oxford United 3+ goals

21%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

59%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oxford United scores more

44%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

31%

Oxford United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Taylor

Peterborough · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

J. Taylor↳ E. Mason-Clark

14'

N. Thompson← J. Ward

23'

Hector Kyprianou

31'

K. Poku↳ E. Mason-Clark

52'

57'

57'

62'

63'

80'

K. Watts← K. Poku

80'

J. Marriott← E. Mason-Clark

81'

B. Thompson← J. Taylor

83'

T. Goodrham← S. Findlay

86'

Tyler Goodrham

89'

D. Anderson← M. McGuane

90+1'

Dan Butler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordPeterborough

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots8

6Corners4

20Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots8

2On Target4

6Off Target2

4Blocked2

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

359Total Passes314

249Accurate Passes207

69%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

20Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

League One: Oxford United 1–2 Peterborough

Peterborough beat Oxford United 2-1 in League One on October 22, 2022.

Goals: J. Taylor (6'), K. Poku (31'), B. Bodin (52').

Oxford United controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.

Oxford United vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Oxford United 1–2 Peterborough