Oxford United 1–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Morecambe

K. Joseph 56'

J. Weir 48'

8/20/2022

League One · Round 5The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oxford United59%

×Draw22%

Morecambe19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.01

Oxford United

1.94

Morecambe

1.01

Oxford United creates 92% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 46 away

1.70

creates per match

0.89

1.13

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

81%

Oxford United or Morecambe

78%

Draw or Morecambe

41%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

35%

Morecambe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

86%

Oxford United 2+ goals

58%

Oxford United 3+ goals

30%

Morecambe 1+ goals

64%

Morecambe 2+ goals

27%

Morecambe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

75%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Oxford United scores more

59%

level

22%

Morecambe scores more

19%

Oxford United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Ripley

Morecambe · G

8.2

Match Events

7'

O. Fane← A. Hunter

46'

C. Stockton← J. Obika

46'

D. Connolly← A. Gnahoua

48'

J. Weir↳ D. Love

51'

56'

67'

70'

75'

S. McLoughlin← L. Gibson

79'

Farrend Rawson

80'

A. O'Connor← J. Weir

84'

Álex Gorrín← M. McGuane

85'

T. Goodrham← J. Henry

89'

Alex Gorrin

90+7'

Ciaron Brown

90+1'

Dylan Connolly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordMorecambe

Overview

66%Possession34%

27Total Shots3

8Corners0

12Fouls18

Shots

27Total Shots3

10On Target1

6Off Target2

11Blocked0

15Inside Box2

12Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

539Total Passes288

428Accurate Passes175

79%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1