Oxford United 1–2 Milton Keynes Dons

Oxford United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

J. Mousinho 89'

W. Grigg 84' (pen)

M. Smith 44'

9/17/2022

League One · Round 10The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oxford United54%

×Draw23%

Milton Keynes Dons22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.04

Oxford United

1.77

Milton Keynes Dons

1.04

Oxford United creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 28 away

2.00

creates per match

1.18

0.91

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Oxford United

2.00

Milton Keynes Dons

1.18

allows per match

Oxford United

0.91

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

78%

Oxford United or Milton Keynes Dons

77%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

46%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

30%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

83%

Oxford United 2+ goals

53%

Oxford United 3+ goals

26%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

65%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

28%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

71%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 2.00 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.18 + Oxford United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oxford United scores more

54%

level

23%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

22%

Oxford United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Mousinho

Oxford United · D

8.0

Match Events

44'

M. Smith↳ D. Devoy

46'

J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← M. Dennis

59'

Josh McEachran

64'

T. Goodrham← S. Findlay

64'

L. Bate← B. Bodin

67'

B. Johnson← J. McEachran

78'

G. O'Donkor← K. Joseph

78'

W. Grigg← C. Grant

84'

W. GriggPenalty

89'

J. Mousinho↳ L. Bate

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordMilton

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots6

5Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots6

5On Target4

10Off Target1

4Blocked1

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

479Total Passes349

382Accurate Passes237

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2