Oxford United 3–2 Milton Keynes Dons

Oxford United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

10/20/2020

League One · Round 7The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Oxford United45%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Oxford United

1.54

Milton Keynes Dons

1.19

Oxford United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 95 away

1.69

creates per match

1.27

1.10

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Oxford United

1.69

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

Oxford United

1.10

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

71%

Oxford United or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

23%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

45%

Oxford United 3+ goals

20%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

70%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

33%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

61%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.69 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Oxford United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more

45%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

29%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff