Oxford United 1–2 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lincoln

C. Brannagan 69' (pen)

A. Scully 45+1'

T. Hopper 21'

8/16/2022

League One · Round 4The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Oxford United43%

×Draw26%

Lincoln31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.19

Oxford United

1.46

Lincoln

1.19

Oxford United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 156 away

1.70

creates per match

1.26

1.13

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Lincoln

1.26

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Lincoln

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

69%

Oxford United or Lincoln

74%

Draw or Lincoln

57%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

21%

Lincoln wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

77%

Oxford United 2+ goals

43%

Oxford United 3+ goals

18%

Lincoln 1+ goals

70%

Lincoln 2+ goals

33%

Lincoln 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

58%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oxford United scores more

43%

level

26%

Lincoln scores more

31%

Oxford United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Scully

Lincoln · F

7.9

Match Events

21'

T. Hopper↳ A. Scully

36'

Steve Seddon

38'

Matty Taylor

45+1'

A. Scully↳ M. Sanders

55'

T. Oakley-Boothe← B. House

56'

J. Henry← L. Bate

60'

K. Joseph← B. Bodin

68'

T. Goodrham← M. Browne

68'

C. Brown← S. Seddon

69'

C. BrannaganPenalty

72'

S. Roughan← A. Scully

81'

Sean Roughan

82'

C. Kendall← J. Garrick

88'

Lasse Sørensen

90+2'

Timothy Eyoma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordLincoln

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots5

10Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots5

5On Target3

8Off Target1

3Blocked1

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

461Total Passes269

368Accurate Passes177

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0