Oxford United 2–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lincoln

M. Taylor 57'

A. Forde 29'

A. Scully 4'

3/26/2021

League One · Round 38The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Oxford United43%

×Draw26%

Lincoln31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.19

Oxford United

1.46

Lincoln

1.19

Oxford United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 156 away

1.70

creates per match

1.26

1.13

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Lincoln

1.26

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Lincoln

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

69%

Oxford United or Lincoln

74%

Draw or Lincoln

57%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

21%

Lincoln wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

77%

Oxford United 2+ goals

43%

Oxford United 3+ goals

18%

Lincoln 1+ goals

70%

Lincoln 2+ goals

33%

Lincoln 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

58%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oxford United scores more

43%

level

26%

Lincoln scores more

31%

Oxford United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Taylor

Oxford United · F

7.9

Match Events

4'

A. Scully↳ A. Edun

27'

A. Forde← J. Ruffels

29'

A. Forde

40'

J. Jones← L. Bridcutt

43'

45'

56'

57'

66'

L. Chambers-Parillon← J. Henry

79'

R. Howarth← H. Anderson

81'

D. Agyei← O. Shodipo

81'

S. Winnall← M. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordLincoln

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots13

6Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots13

6On Target4

6Off Target7

8Blocked2

14Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

399Total Passes376

310Accurate Passes283

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2