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Oxford United vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
S. Baptiste 36'
12/26/2019League OneLeague One · Round 23The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Oxford United43%
×Draw26%
Lincoln31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.46
Lincoln
1.19

Oxford United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 156 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.70
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Oxford United
1.13
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
69%
Oxford United or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
57%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
21%
Lincoln wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
77%
Oxford United 2+ goals
43%
Oxford United 3+ goals
18%
Lincoln 1+ goals
70%
Lincoln 2+ goals
33%
Lincoln 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
58%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oxford United scores more
43%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
31%

Oxford United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. MousinhoOxford UnitedOxford United · D
8.2

Match Events

36'
S. Baptiste↳ C. Cadden
45'
Michael O'Connor
60'
J. Akinde← M. OConnor
67'
M. Sykes← J. Henry
69'
Joe Morrell
71'
John Mousinho
73'
J. Mackie← M. Taylor
73'
J. Payne← J. Hesketh
82'
Shandon Baptiste
85'
E. Moore← T. Fosu

Possession

52%Oxford

Shots

7Oxford

Pass accuracy

50%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordLincoln
Overview
52%Possession48%
7Total Shots7
6Corners7
16Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots7
4On Target0
2Off Target4
1Blocked3
3Inside Box6
4Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
483Total Passes421
393Accurate Passes343
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League One: Oxford United 1–0 Lincoln

Oxford United beat Lincoln 1-0 in League One on December 26, 2019.

Goals: S. Baptiste (36').

Oxford United controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.