Oxford United 3–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gillingham

S. Long 90+3', 84'

S. Winnall 74'

R. Cundy 72'

V. Oliver 39'

4/17/2021

League One · Round 42The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Oxford United46%

×Draw25%

Gillingham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.15

Oxford United

1.54

Gillingham

1.15

Oxford United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 99 away

1.70

creates per match

1.17

1.13

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

72%

Oxford United or Gillingham

75%

Draw or Gillingham

54%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

23%

Gillingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

45%

Oxford United 3+ goals

20%

Gillingham 1+ goals

68%

Gillingham 2+ goals

32%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

62%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oxford United scores more

46%

level

25%

Gillingham scores more

28%

Oxford United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

S. Long

Oxford United · D

8.9

Match Events

39'

V. Oliver

65'

S. Winnall← O. Shodipo

65'

66'

72'

74'

79'

84'

89'

T. O'Connor← J. Graham

90'

Matty Taylor

90+7'

J. Hanson← E. Lee

90+7'

Álex Gorrín← M. Taylor

90+3'

S. Long↳ C. Brannagan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordGillingham

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots15

7Corners13

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots15

5On Target4

5Off Target4

6Blocked7

9Inside Box13

7Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

510Total Passes277

419Accurate Passes172

82%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4