Oxford United 1–1 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Forest Green

J. Henry 19'

J. Matt 60'

11/19/2022

League One · Round 19The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oxford United60%

×Draw22%

Forest Green18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.91

Oxford United

1.87

Forest Green

0.91

Oxford United creates 105% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 23 away

1.70

creates per match

0.70

1.13

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Forest Green

0.70

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Forest Green

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

82%

Oxford United or Forest Green

78%

Draw or Forest Green

40%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

35%

Forest Green wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

85%

Oxford United 2+ goals

56%

Oxford United 3+ goals

29%

Forest Green 1+ goals

60%

Forest Green 2+ goals

23%

Forest Green 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

77%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Forest Green away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Forest Green defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.87

Forest Green attack 0.70 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Oxford United scores more

60%

level

22%

Forest Green scores more

18%

Oxford United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. McGee

Forest Green · G

8.3

Match Events

19'

J. Henry↳ B. Bodin

23'

T. Goodrham← B. Bodin

38'

Dominic Bernard

45+3'

Sam Long

45+7'

J. Matt← K. McAllister

50'

Christian Marques← B. Cargill

51'

60'

67'

74'

77'

G. O'Donkor← M. Taylor

78'

S. Seddon← S. Findlay

88'

Myles Peart-Harris

90+9'

Christian Marques

90+9'

Oliver Casey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordForest

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots12

5Corners8

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots12

9On Target5

7Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box10

12Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

455Total Passes340

353Accurate Passes200

78%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards6

1Offsides2