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Oxford United vs Charlton — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
12/29/2022League OneLeague One · Round 24The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Oxford United44%
×Draw26%
Charlton30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.46
Charlton
1.17

Oxford United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 140 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.69
Charlton
1.24

allows per match

Oxford United
1.10
Charlton
1.23

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
70%
Oxford United or Charlton
74%
Draw or Charlton
56%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
21%
Charlton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
77%
Oxford United 2+ goals
43%
Oxford United 3+ goals
18%
Charlton 1+ goals
69%
Charlton 2+ goals
33%
Charlton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
59%
Charlton (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.23 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.69 + Charlton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Charlton attack 1.24 + Oxford United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oxford United scores more
44%
level
26%
Charlton scores more
30%

Oxford United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Charlton

Oxford United beat Charlton 3-1 in League One on December 29, 2022.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.