Oxford United 0–3 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Blackpool

E. Simms 74', 26'

O. Turton 23'

5/18/2021

League One · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsThe Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Oxford United45%

×Draw26%

Blackpool29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.11

Oxford United

1.44

Blackpool

1.11

Oxford United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 134 away

1.68

creates per match

1.12

1.10

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Oxford United

1.68

Blackpool

1.12

allows per match

Oxford United

1.10

Blackpool

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

71%

Oxford United or Blackpool

74%

Draw or Blackpool

55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

22%

Blackpool wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

76%

Oxford United 2+ goals

42%

Oxford United 3+ goals

18%

Blackpool 1+ goals

67%

Blackpool 2+ goals

30%

Blackpool 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

60%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.68 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Blackpool attack 1.12 + Oxford United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more

45%

level

26%

Blackpool scores more

29%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Ellis Simms

Blackpool · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

23'

26'

45'

53'

L. Garbutt← J. Thorniley

59'

K. Stewart

68'

E. Lee← D. Agyei

68'

M. Taylor← S. Winnall

74'

E. Simms↳ J. Yates

75'

E. Embleton← J. Gabriel

75'

K. Anderson← D. Mitchell

79'

J. Hanson← A. Forde

80'

B. Barker← O. Shodipo

82'

J. Yates← G. Madine

86'

S. Winnall← A. Gorrin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordBlackpool

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots11

6Corners4

10Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots11

1On Target4

4Off Target3

6Blocked4

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

415Total Passes319

306Accurate Passes208

74%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2