Oxford United 5–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

M. Taylor 90+3', 32'

N. Holland 55', 34'

J. Henry 50'

2/18/2020

League One · Round 29The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Oxford United51%

×Draw25%

AFC Wimbledon24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.04

Oxford United

1.64

AFC Wimbledon

1.04

Oxford United creates 58% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 109 away

1.70

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

AFC Wimbledon

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

76%

Oxford United or AFC Wimbledon

75%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

49%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

27%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

81%

Oxford United 2+ goals

49%

Oxford United 3+ goals

23%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

65%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

28%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

68%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.64

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oxford United scores more

51%

level

25%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

24%

Oxford United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

34'

50'

55'

56'

K. Appiah← M. Pinnock

56'

S. Wagstaff← M. Sanders

65'

G. Thorne← M. Browne

72'

N. Guinness-Walker

72'

D. Agyei← M. Sykes

76'

J. Mackie← N. Holland

87'

A. Roscrow← J. Pigott

90+3'

M. Taylor↳ J. Henry

Oxford

AFC

21

2

6

26

18

23

▼

Sanders

8

Hartigan

39

▼

Pigott

11

▼

19

17

1

4

5

A

3

14

8

18

A

▼

Sykes

27

⚽2

▼

Holland

30

A

▼

Browne

17

⚽A

Henry

9

⚽2

Taylor

Manager: K. Robinson

65'▲G. Thorne←▼M. Browne

72'▲D. Agyei←▼M. Sykes

76'▲J. Mackie←▼N. Holland

Oxford United substitutes

22Thorne23Agyei19Mackie13I49Spasov20Hanson12Long

Manager: G. Hodges

56'▲K. Appiah←▼M. Pinnock

56'▲S. Wagstaff←▼M. Sanders

87'▲A. Roscrow←▼J. Pigott

AFC Wimbledon substitutes

9Appiah7Wagstaff10Roscrow37Osew1Trott4McDonald12Rudoni

League One: Oxford United 5–0 AFC Wimbledon

Oxford United beat AFC Wimbledon 5-0 in League One on February 18, 2020.

Goals: M. Taylor (32', 90+3'), N. Holland (34', 55'), J. Henry (50').

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.

Oxford United vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Oxford United 5–0 AFC Wimbledon