Oxford United 1–2 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Accrington ST

E. Lee 25'

M. Nottingham 70'

P. Smyth 16'

4/5/2021

League One · Round 40The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Oxford United53%

×Draw24%

Accrington ST23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.04

Oxford United

1.69

Accrington ST

1.04

Oxford United creates 63% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 107 away

1.70

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

77%

Oxford United or Accrington ST

76%

Draw or Accrington ST

47%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

28%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

82%

Oxford United 2+ goals

50%

Oxford United 3+ goals

24%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

65%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

28%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

69%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oxford United scores more

53%

level

24%

Accrington ST scores more

23%

Oxford United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Stevens

Oxford United · G

7.7

Match Events

16'

P. Smyth↳ M. Butcher

25'

E. Lee↳ M. Taylor

54'

58'

68'

70'

81'

A. Forde← S. Long

81'

D. Agyei← O. Shodipo

87'

Harvey Rodgers

88'

Matty Taylor

90+3'

A. Phillips← P. Smyth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordAccrington

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots18

6Corners7

14Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots18

3On Target10

6Off Target4

8Blocked4

11Inside Box10

6Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

333Total Passes287

241Accurate Passes183

72%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1