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Oviedo vs Villarreal II — Segunda División 2018

Oviedo
Oviedo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
3/31/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 33Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oviedo53%
×Draw26%
Villarreal II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oviedo
1.51
Villarreal II
0.85

Oviedo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 42 away

creates per match

Oviedo
1.38
Villarreal II
0.81

allows per match

Oviedo
0.89
Villarreal II
1.64

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw
79%
Oviedo or Villarreal II
74%
Draw or Villarreal II
47%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+
27%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals
78%
Oviedo 2+ goals
44%
Oviedo 3+ goals
19%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
57%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
21%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)
71%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.38 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Oviedo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oviedo scores more
53%
level
26%
Villarreal II scores more
21%

Oviedo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Oviedo 2–1 Villarreal II

Oviedo beat Villarreal II 2-1 in Segunda División on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in Oviedo.