Oviedo 1–1 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

Oviedo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Ferrol

8/20/2023

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oviedo53%

×Draw27%

Racing Ferrol20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OviedoExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.78

Oviedo

1.46

Racing Ferrol

0.78

Oviedo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 42 away

1.38

creates per match

0.67

0.89

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Oviedo

1.38

Racing Ferrol

0.67

allows per match

Oviedo

0.89

Racing Ferrol

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw

80%

Oviedo or Racing Ferrol

73%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

47%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+

27%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals

77%

Oviedo 2+ goals

43%

Oviedo 3+ goals

18%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

54%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

18%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)

73%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.38 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Oviedo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oviedo scores more

53%

level

27%

Racing Ferrol scores more

20%

Oviedo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff