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Oviedo vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Oviedo
Oviedo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
4/14/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 35Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Oviedo48%
×Draw27%
Mirandes25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oviedo
1.43
Mirandes
0.95

Oviedo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 148 away

creates per match

Oviedo
1.37
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Oviedo
0.89
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw
75%
Oviedo or Mirandes
73%
Draw or Mirandes
52%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+
24%
Mirandes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals
76%
Oviedo 2+ goals
42%
Oviedo 3+ goals
17%
Mirandes 1+ goals
61%
Mirandes 2+ goals
25%
Mirandes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)
66%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.37 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Oviedo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oviedo scores more
48%
level
27%
Mirandes scores more
25%

Oviedo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Oviedo 1–1 Mirandes

Oviedo and Mirandes drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in Oviedo.