Oviedo 1–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Oviedo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

Borja Bastón 22'

11/26/2022

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Oviedo48%

×Draw27%

Mirandes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OviedoExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.95

Oviedo

1.44

Mirandes

0.95

Oviedo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 149 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

0.90

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Oviedo

1.39

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Oviedo

0.90

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw

75%

Oviedo or Mirandes

73%

Draw or Mirandes

52%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+

24%

Mirandes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals

76%

Oviedo 2+ goals

42%

Oviedo 3+ goals

18%

Mirandes 1+ goals

61%

Mirandes 2+ goals

25%

Mirandes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)

66%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 154 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.39 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Oviedo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oviedo scores more

48%

level

27%

Mirandes scores more

25%

Oviedo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

David Costas

Oviedo · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

Borja Bastón↳ David Costas

58'

Carlos Pomares← M. Flores

58'

Roberto López← Beñat Prados

65'

Dani Calvo

66'

S. Obeng← Sergi Enrich

75'

Alejandro Barbudo Barbu

76'

Luismi

83'

Borja Sánchez← Abel Bretones

83'

Manu García← Barbu

83'

Marcos Paulo← Óscar Pinchi

88'

Raúl Parra← Juanlu Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OviedoMirandes

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots8

4Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots8

5On Target0

2Off Target6

2Blocked2

8Inside Box5

1Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

299Total Passes581

202Accurate Passes478

68%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1