Oviedo 1–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Oviedo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

Ortuño 41' (pen)

7/1/2020

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Oviedo48%

×Draw27%

Mirandes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OviedoExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.95

Oviedo

1.44

Mirandes

0.95

Oviedo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 149 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

0.90

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Oviedo

1.39

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Oviedo

0.90

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw

75%

Oviedo or Mirandes

73%

Draw or Mirandes

52%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+

24%

Mirandes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals

76%

Oviedo 2+ goals

42%

Oviedo 3+ goals

18%

Mirandes 1+ goals

61%

Mirandes 2+ goals

25%

Mirandes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)

66%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 154 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.39 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Oviedo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oviedo scores more

48%

level

27%

Mirandes scores more

25%

Oviedo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. Lunin

Oviedo · G

7.6

Match Events

17'

C. J. Martinez

41'

OrtuñoPenalty

63'

A. González← C. Martínez

63'

Joaquín Muñoz← Iñigo Vicente

64'

S. Tejera

68'

Lolo González← I. Baldé

68'

Matheus Barrozo← Álvaro Peña

68'

Raúl Lizoáin← Limones

83'

A. Rey

85'

E. Ohemeng← L. Crisetig

88'

Christian Fernández← Borja Sánchez

89'

A. Lunin

90+7'

S. Obeng← Ortuño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OviedoMirandes

Overview

43%Possession57%

4Total Shots12

1Corners9

19Fouls19

Shots

4Total Shots12

3On Target4

1Off Target4

0Blocked4

2Inside Box6

2Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

332Total Passes414

235Accurate Passes314

71%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1