Oviedo 1–1 Extremadura: Result & Stats

Oviedo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Extremadura

8/19/2018

Segunda División · Round 1Jorge Garbajosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oviedo45%

×Draw28%

Extremadura27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OviedoExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.98

Oviedo

1.34

Extremadura

0.98

Oviedo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 42 away

1.38

creates per match

1.07

0.89

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Oviedo

1.38

Extremadura

1.07

allows per match

Oviedo

0.89

Extremadura

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw

73%

Oviedo or Extremadura

72%

Draw or Extremadura

55%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+

21%

Extremadura wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals

74%

Oviedo 2+ goals

39%

Oviedo 3+ goals

15%

Extremadura 1+ goals

62%

Extremadura 2+ goals

26%

Extremadura 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)

62%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.38 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Oviedo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oviedo scores more

45%

level

28%

Extremadura scores more

27%

Oviedo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff