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Oviedo vs Burgos — Segunda División 2018

Oviedo
Oviedo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Burgos
Burgos
11/3/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Oviedo48%
×Draw28%
Burgos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oviedo
1.31
Burgos
0.84

Oviedo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 105 away

creates per match

Oviedo
1.38
Burgos
0.79

allows per match

Oviedo
0.89
Burgos
1.25

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par
Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw
76%
Oviedo or Burgos
72%
Draw or Burgos
52%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+
22%
Burgos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals
73%
Oviedo 2+ goals
38%
Oviedo 3+ goals
14%
Burgos 1+ goals
57%
Burgos 2+ goals
21%
Burgos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)
67%
Burgos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.38 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Burgos attack 0.79 + Oviedo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oviedo scores more
48%
level
28%
Burgos scores more
24%

Oviedo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oviedo vs Burgos

Oviedo beat Burgos 3-1 in Segunda División on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in Oviedo.