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Oviedo vs Amorebieta — Segunda División 2018

Oviedo
Oviedo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
11/20/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oviedo55%
×Draw25%
Amorebieta19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oviedo
1.56
Amorebieta
0.81

Oviedo creates 93% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 42 away

creates per match

Oviedo
1.38
Amorebieta
0.74

allows per match

Oviedo
0.89
Amorebieta
1.74

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw
81%
Oviedo or Amorebieta
75%
Draw or Amorebieta
45%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+
29%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals
79%
Oviedo 2+ goals
46%
Oviedo 3+ goals
21%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
56%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
19%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)
74%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.38 + Amorebieta defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Oviedo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oviedo scores more
55%
level
25%
Amorebieta scores more
19%

Oviedo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Oviedo 2–0 Amorebieta

Oviedo beat Amorebieta 2-0 in Segunda División on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in Oviedo.