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OVF Alliance vs Oly Town — USL League Two 2018

OVF Alliance
OVF Alliance
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Oly Town
Oly Town
7/10/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 67South Albany High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

OVF Alliance50%
×Draw21%
Oly Town29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OVF Alliance
2.06
Oly Town
1.54

OVF Alliance creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 35 away

creates per match

OVF Alliance
1.58
Oly Town
1.49

allows per match

OVF Alliance
1.58
Oly Town
2.54

finishing

OVF Alliance+0.00on par
Oly Town+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OVF Alliance ↓

Oly Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

OVF Alliance or draw
71%
OVF Alliance or Oly Town
79%
Draw or Oly Town
50%

Winning margin

OVF Alliance wins by 2+
29%
Oly Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

OVF Alliance 1+ goals
87%
OVF Alliance 2+ goals
61%
OVF Alliance 3+ goals
34%
Oly Town 1+ goals
79%
Oly Town 2+ goals
45%
Oly Town 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

OVF Alliance (draw refunded)
63%
Oly Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OVF Alliance at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Oly Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OVF Alliance attack 1.58 + Oly Town defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.06

Oly Town attack 1.49 + OVF Alliance defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

OVF Alliance scores more
50%
level
21%
Oly Town scores more
29%

OVF Alliance at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "OVF Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OVF Alliance vs Oly Town

Oly Town beat OVF Alliance 2-1 in USL League Two on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at South Albany High School in Albany, Oregon.