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OVF Alliance vs Lane United — USL League Two 2018

OVF Alliance
OVF Alliance
FT
2 – 2
Lane United
Lane United
6/28/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 39South Albany High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

OVF Alliance43%
×Draw23%
Lane United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OVF Alliance
1.72
Lane United
1.48

OVF Alliance creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 33 away

creates per match

OVF Alliance
1.58
Lane United
1.39

allows per match

OVF Alliance
1.58
Lane United
1.85

finishing

OVF Alliance+0.00on par
Lane United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OVF Alliance ↓

Lane United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

OVF Alliance or draw
67%
OVF Alliance or Lane United
77%
Draw or Lane United
57%

Winning margin

OVF Alliance wins by 2+
23%
Lane United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

OVF Alliance 1+ goals
82%
OVF Alliance 2+ goals
51%
OVF Alliance 3+ goals
25%
Lane United 1+ goals
77%
Lane United 2+ goals
43%
Lane United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

OVF Alliance (draw refunded)
57%
Lane United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OVF Alliance at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Lane United away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OVF Alliance attack 1.58 + Lane United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lane United attack 1.39 + OVF Alliance defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OVF Alliance scores more
43%
level
23%
Lane United scores more
33%

OVF Alliance at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OVF Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: OVF Alliance 2–2 Lane United

OVF Alliance and Lane United drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 28, 2021.

The match was played at South Albany High School in Albany, Oregon.