OVF Alliance 1–2 Ballard: Result & Stats

OVF Alliance

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ballard

6/19/2022

USL League Two · Round 43South Albany High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

OVF Alliance24%

×Draw21%

Ballard55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OVF AllianceExpected goals in this matchBallard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.04

OVF Alliance

1.29

Ballard

2.04

Ballard creates 58% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 35 away

1.58

creates per match

2.51

1.58

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

OVF Alliance

1.58

Ballard

2.51

allows per match

OVF Alliance

1.58

Ballard

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OVF Alliance+0.00on par

Ballard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OVF Alliance ↓

Ballard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

OVF Alliance or draw

45%

OVF Alliance or Ballard

79%

Draw or Ballard

76%

Winning margin

OVF Alliance wins by 2+

10%

Ballard wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

OVF Alliance 1+ goals

72%

OVF Alliance 2+ goals

37%

OVF Alliance 3+ goals

14%

Ballard 1+ goals

87%

Ballard 2+ goals

60%

Ballard 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

OVF Alliance (draw refunded)

31%

Ballard (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OVF Alliance at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Ballard away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OVF Alliance attack 1.58 + Ballard defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ballard attack 2.51 + OVF Alliance defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

OVF Alliance scores more

24%

level

21%

Ballard scores more

55%

Ballard at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff