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Ovetense FC vs Resistencia — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
0 – 0
Resistencia
Resistencia
10/26/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 27Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC38%
×Draw29%
Resistencia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.13
Resistencia
1.03

Ovetense FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Resistencia
1.16

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Resistencia
1.25

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
67%
Ovetense FC or Resistencia
71%
Draw or Resistencia
62%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
16%
Resistencia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
68%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
31%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
11%
Resistencia 1+ goals
64%
Resistencia 2+ goals
28%
Resistencia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
54%
Resistencia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Resistencia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Resistencia attack 1.16 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
38%
level
29%
Resistencia scores more
33%

Ovetense FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ovetense FC vs Resistencia

Ovetense FC and Resistencia drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).