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Ovetense FC vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
1 – 1
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
3/18/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 1Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC38%
×Draw29%
Fernando De La Mora33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.14
Fernando De La Mora
1.03

Ovetense FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
67%
Ovetense FC or Fernando De La Mora
71%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
62%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
16%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
68%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
32%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
11%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
64%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
28%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
54%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
38%
level
29%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
33%

Ovetense FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ovetense FC vs Fernando De La Mora

Ovetense FC and Fernando De La Mora drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).