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Ovetense FC vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
1 – 0
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
8/4/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC52%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Caaguazu21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.46
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.81

Ovetense FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
79%
Ovetense FC or Deportivo Caaguazu
73%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
48%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
77%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
43%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
52%
level
27%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
21%

Ovetense FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ovetense FC vs Deportivo Caaguazu

Ovetense FC beat Deportivo Caaguazu 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).