Ovetense FC vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo — Division Intermedia 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Ovetense FC34%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 30 home / 92 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ovetense FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02
Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Club River PlateClub Sp. San Lorenzo
Fernando De La Mora
Guairena FC
2 De Mayo
Rubio NU
Fulgencio Yegros
Resistencia
Deportivo Liberacion
Sportivo Trinidense
Ri 3 CorralesOvetense FC
General Caballero
Sportivo Iteno
Deportivo Caaguazu
Martin LedesmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ovetense FC host Club Sp. San Lorenzo on Sunday, 1 April 2018 at 20:00. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2018/2019 season.
Division Intermedia: Ovetense FC 1–1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Ovetense FC and Club Sp. San Lorenzo drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on April 1, 2018.
The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).