Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ovetense FC vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
1 – 2
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
7/1/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC39%
×Draw30%
Club River Plate31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.11
Club River Plate
0.96

Ovetense FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Club River Plate
1.02

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Club River Plate
1.23

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
69%
Ovetense FC or Club River Plate
70%
Draw or Club River Plate
61%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
16%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
67%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
30%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
10%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
62%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
25%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
56%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Club River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Club River Plate attack 1.02 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
39%
level
30%
Club River Plate scores more
31%

Ovetense FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ovetense FC vs Club River Plate

Club River Plate beat Ovetense FC 2-1 in Division Intermedia on July 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).