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Ovetense FC vs Atyrá — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
3 – 0
Atyrá
Atyrá
8/11/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC42%
×Draw28%
Atyrá29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.27
Atyrá
1.01

Ovetense FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Atyrá
1.13

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Atyrá
1.55

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Atyrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
71%
Ovetense FC or Atyrá
72%
Draw or Atyrá
58%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
19%
Atyrá wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
72%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
36%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
14%
Atyrá 1+ goals
64%
Atyrá 2+ goals
27%
Atyrá 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
59%
Atyrá (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atyrá attack 1.13 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
42%
level
28%
Atyrá scores more
29%

Ovetense FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Ovetense FC 3–0 Atyrá

Ovetense FC beat Atyrá 3-0 in Division Intermedia on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).